Global Population Change & Your Future
Ed 10 | The grftf Newsletter
Hi friends -
The purpose of this newsletter is to get you ready for the future.
We focus a lot on digital technology. But tech is not the only exponential force that is impacting the future. Population growth and decline are quietly reshaping the game.
In the developed world, the population is shrinking and aging. While in the less developed world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, the population is young and booming.
Why should you care?
Business, career choices, the economy, opportunities for growth and investment are all impacted by global demographics.
Population change directly impacts the marketplace. Whether you are a founder, technologist, creator, writer, film maker, physician, educator, or anything else, you need to understand the forces at play, and prepare for changes down the road.
In this edition, you will learn about the demographic trends, how they are changing our environment, and what it all means for your choices in work and life.
Enjoy!
Misha
What you’re getting this week:
The grftf Podcast Ep 10 | Population Changes & What the World Looks Like in the Future — Dr. Jennifer Sciubba
The Aging Globe
Most Populous Nations 2024, 2050, 2100
Largest Cities in 2100
What Happened to China
Africa on the Rise
Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy
Some Things to Think About & Do
Latest from The grftf Podcast
Ep 10 | Population Changes & What the World Looks Like in the Future — Jennifer Sciubba
In this week’s episode, I chat with Dr. Jennifer Sciubba, a renowned expert in political demography. We dissect global demographic changes, including population growth, decline, aging societies and migration. We discuss the profound impact of demographic trends on global power shifts and job markets, the challenges of an aging population, the importance of fostering resilience through lifelong learning, health investments, and preparation for extended working lives. We cover fertility, male loneliness as a demographic issue, and we even touch on virtual reality and its potential to both enhance and disrupt human connections.
More about Dr. Jennifer Sciubba:
Jennifer D. Sciubba, Ph.D., is one of the foremost experts in the field of political demography. Her work argues that a deeper understanding of fertility, mortality, and migration trends points us toward the investments we need to make today to shape the future we want tomorrow, the central theme of her latest book, 8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World (W.W. Norton 2022). Her TEDTalk The Truth About Human Population Decline has been viewed over one million times.
Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, Amazon Music, iHeart, & wherever you get your podcasts.
Share this newsletter & help the world get ready for the future.
More about population changes in the 21st century
THE AGING GLOBE:
Coming of Age: Infographic on Global Population Trends – IMF F&D
MOST POPULOUS NATIONS 2024, 2050, 2100:
LARGEST CITIES IN 2100:
What Happened to China
China's population of over 1.4 billion could drop by a precipitous 60 percent by the end of the century, according to a Chinese think tank.
By 2100, the world's second-largest population could number just 525 million, the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS) has predicted. LINK
The UN forecasts that China’s population will decline from 1.426 billion this year to 1.313 billion by 2050 and below 800 million by 2100. That’s according to the UN’s “medium variant,” or middle-of-the-road projection. The large population decline is projected even though it assumes that China’s total fertility rate will rise from 1.18 children per woman in 2022 to 1.48 in 2100.
Key facts about China's declining population | Pew Research Center
India Passed China as World’s Most Populous Country in 2023
The UN said that both China and India were experiencing a “shift in their populations towards older ages”, but that population ageing was unfolding more gradually in India than in China. John Wilmoth, director of the Population Division at the UN DESA, said this reflected the fact that China now had one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, while India’s fertility rate was still only just below that needed to ensure the population’s replacement. “It took three and a half decades for India to experience the same fertility reduction that took place over just seven years in China in the 1970s,” he told a press conference. The number of people aged over 65 was expected to more than double in China and nearly double in India between 2023 and 2050. LINK
Africa is On the Rise
Astonishing change is underway in Africa, where the population is projected to nearly double to 2.5 billion over the next quarter-century — an era that will not only transform many African countries, experts say, but also radically reshape their relationship with the rest of the world.
Birthrates are tumbling in richer nations, creating anxiety about how to care for, and pay for, their aging societies. But Africa’s baby boom continues apace, fueling the youngest, fastest growing population on earth.
In 1950, Africans made up 8 percent of the world’s people. A century later, they will account for one-quarter of humanity, and at least one-third of all young people aged 15 to 24, according to United Nations forecasts.
The median age on the African continent is 19. In India, the world’s most populous country, it is 28. In China and the United States, it is 38.
How the Youth Boom in Africa Will Change the World - The New York Times
Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy
New estimates of economic flows by age combined with population projections show that in the coming decades (1) global GDP growth could be slower by about 1 percentage point per year, declining more sharply than population growth; (2) GDP will shift toward sub-Saharan Africa more than population trends suggest; (3) living standards of working-age adults may be squeezed by high spending on children and seniors; (4) changing population age distribution will raise living standards in many lower-income nations; (5) changing economic life cycles will amplify the economic effects of population aging in many higher income economies; and (6) population aging will likely push public debt, private assets, and perhaps productivity higher. Population change will have profound implications for national, regional, and global economies. LINK
Some Things to Think About & Do
Create apps, products, content for the aging population in the developed world.
Create apps, products, content for the young booming population in sub-Saharan Africa.
Create tools for upskilling, retraining workers who will now retire later in life and who must adapt to new technology.
Create healthcare tools and products for the aging populations.
Create education tools for young people in underserved populations who have access to a mobile phone but not much else.
Re-think aging.
Drop a comment below and add your thoughts and ideas about how to respond to changing global demographics. 🡣
Impressed by your words and thoughts!
Absolutely insane what will come of chinas population. Very informative thank you